Four matches into a Premier League season is usually far too early to decide which clubs are genuine title contenders and which have already fallen out of the race.
However, Arsenal and Manchester City have made such strong starts that it is difficult to ignore the possibility of an early two-team battle.
The two clubs have finished in the top two in three of the last four seasons, and they are currently the only sides with a perfect record after four games.
So, has the Premier League title race already become a contest between Arsenal and Manchester City?
Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham all entered the season with renewed expectations following managerial changes. Yet their opening performances have ranged from uncertain to seriously disappointing.
Arsenal and City have each collected 12 points from four matches. They are already four points ahead of third-placed Hull City and five points clear of the rest of the division.
Hull deserve credit for their excellent beginning, although their early form may not yet have convinced them that they belong in the title conversation.
Arsenal and Manchester City Lead the Way
Arsenal began the campaign as defending champions and the leading pre-season favourites.
Mikel Arteta guided the club to its first Premier League title in 22 years last season. Although their approach was sometimes described as defensive or hard-fought, the results were undeniable.
They opened the new campaign with a convincing 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield.
Arsenal have since continued their impressive run with league wins against Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland. They have also secured a Champions League victory over Napoli.
Including the end of last season, the Gunners have now won nine consecutive league matches. Their most recent 90-minute defeat in any competition came against Manchester City on 19 April.
City, meanwhile, began the season without the continuity enjoyed by Arsenal. Pep Guardiola left after 10 years in charge, during which he won six Premier League titles and completed a historic Treble.
Enzo Maresca, who previously worked as one of Guardiola’s assistants, has taken over at the Etihad Stadium. He has responded to the Community Shield defeat by guiding City to four league victories from four matches.
City have beaten Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Coventry in the league, while also overcoming Porto in the Champions League. Their most recent league victory came against Manchester United, although the 1-0 result was surrounded by controversy.
Erling Haaland scored the only goal, but the Premier League’s refereeing body later admitted that the strike should have been disallowed for offside.
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Are the Leaders Completely Dominant?
Although Arsenal and Manchester City have both won every league match so far, their underlying statistics do not suggest that either side has completely overwhelmed the competition.
Brighton have scored 13 goals, while Chelsea have managed 10. Both clubs have found the net more often than Arsenal and City, who have each scored eight times.
The leading pair also rank relatively modestly for shots. Arsenal are 10th in the division and City are 11th in that category.
When it comes to touches in the opposition penalty area, City rank fifth and Arsenal sixth.
Their defensive records, however, have been among the strongest in the league. Arsenal have conceded only one goal, while Manchester City have allowed two.
Before the season began, bookmakers generally viewed Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United as the next three most likely title winners, with Tottenham considered a more distant possibility.
So far, though, those clubs have struggled to match the pace set by the leaders.
Chelsea, Liverpool, United and Spurs Face Early Problems
Chelsea and Liverpool both appointed new managers during the summer, bringing in Xabi Alonso and Andoni Iraola respectively.
Manchester United and Tottenham had already made managerial changes earlier in 2026. Michael Carrick and Roberto De Zerbi therefore had the opportunity to oversee their first full pre-seasons with their respective clubs.
All four teams had reasons to believe the new campaign could bring improvement.
Chelsea finished 10th last season, Liverpool ended their title defence in fifth, and Tottenham finished 17th. Manchester United placed third after a significant improvement under Carrick.
Chelsea currently sit fifth and have suffered just one defeat. They have scored 10 goals but have also conceded nine, giving them one of the weaker defensive records in the division.
The Blues have conceded at least twice in each of their first four league matches, something they had not experienced at the start of a season since 2015-16.
Liverpool are seventh and remain unbeaten, but three of their four matches have ended in draws. It is only the third time in the past 63 seasons that they have failed to win either of their opening two home league games.
Manchester United are 13th with four points, matching their joint-worst start to a Premier League season since the competition began in 1992-93. Their total is identical to their tally at the same stage last season.
United have registered 84 shots, more than any other team in the league, and have conceded only 41 attempts, the second-lowest total. Nevertheless, they have scored just seven goals and conceded seven.
Tottenham’s position is even more troubling. After finishing 17th in each of the previous two seasons, Spurs would have hoped for a brighter beginning under De Zerbi.
Instead, they are once again 17th. Their failure to score in any of their first four league matches is also unprecedented in the club’s history.
What Does History Tell Us?
A perfect start does not necessarily guarantee a team will win the title.
Before this season, 80 clubs in English top-flight history had won their opening four league matches. Only 24 of those teams eventually went on to become champions.
During the Premier League era, nine of the 28 teams that won their first four games went on to lift the trophy. Manchester City were the most recent side to achieve this, doing so in the 2023-24 campaign.
There have been only six previous Premier League seasons in which at least two clubs won each of their first four matches.
Premier League Seasons with Multiple Clubs Winning Their First Four Games
| Season | Clubs with Four Wins | Champions |
|---|---|---|
| 2004-05 | Chelsea, Arsenal | Chelsea |
| 2005-06 | Chelsea, Charlton Athletic | Chelsea |
| 2009-10 | Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester City | Chelsea |
| 2011-12 | Manchester City, Manchester United | Manchester City |
| 2018-19 | Liverpool, Chelsea, Watford | Manchester City |
| 2020-21 | Everton, Aston Villa | Manchester City |
| 2026-27 | Arsenal, Manchester City | To be decided |
The early gap also presents a challenge for the teams chasing Arsenal and City.
Only two clubs have won the Premier League after being at least five points behind the leaders following the opening four matches.
Manchester United overcame such a deficit five times under Sir Alex Ferguson, during the 1992-93, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons.
Manchester City also managed the feat under Pep Guardiola in 2020-21.
Plenty of Football Still Remains
Despite the historical evidence, it would be premature to declare the title race over after only four matches.
Injuries, fixture congestion, European commitments and changes in form can all dramatically alter the Premier League standings over the course of a season.
Nevertheless, Arsenal and Manchester City have made the strongest starts and already possess a clear advantage over several expected contenders.
If Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham cannot improve quickly, the possibility of a two-team title race will become increasingly difficult to dismiss.
